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KMID : 1024520150240040383
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
2015 Volume.24 No. 4 p.383 ~ p.391
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Estimation of Design Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenario in Jeju Island
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Lee Jun-Ho
Yang Sung-Kee
Jung Woo-Yul
Yang Won-Seok
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Abstract
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As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.
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KEYWORD
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Design rainfall, Climate change scenario, Gumbel, Quantile mapping method
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